How Does Arizona Rank Nationally?

The nation’s public school systems have been making headline news recently as each state publicizes graduation and dropout information in response to the federal legislation of No Child Left Behind. However, because there is no accepted national standard for how graduates and dropouts are calculated, it is difficult, if not impossible, to make comparisons between states or to rank the states from “highest performing” to “lowest performing.” In an effort to provide some clarity on the different methods of calculating graduation rates and what these numbers mean for Arizona, we have answered a few frequently asked questions below and have included the most recent information on graduation rates. Although the Arizona Department of Education has released graduation rate data for the Class of 2003, we are reporting only numbers from 2001 and 2002 to keep the information as comparable as possible. Please visit our GRAD Initiative FAQs if you have any questions about the definitions of specific terms and phrases used below.

What do we know about how Arizona compares nationally?
How many Arizona students are not graduating each year?
Why do graduation rates vary by who is reporting them?
What are the most common graduation rates used and how are they calculated?
Where can I find more details on how these rates are calculated?
What are the top and bottom ranked states by these different rates?
What about dropout rates?

1. What do we know about how Arizona compares nationally? There are almost as many ways of calculating state graduation rates as there are states. Getting a true reading of how Arizona or any other state compares to another is thus problematic. According to the most frequently cited method of determining the numbers by the National Center for Education Statistics (which calculates something called the high school completion rate), Arizona reports in at nearly the lowest completion rate of all states reporting. According to the Manhattan Institute and Urban Institute methodologies for calculating graduation rates, Arizona ranks slightly below the national average. According to a brief report from the Education Commission of the States, Arizona’s graduation rate has been reported as low as 59% in recent years. An initiative of the National Governor’s Association (NGA) may ultimately help solve this dilemma. The NGA has recently proposed a common method for calculating graduation rates that would be utilized by all the states, allowing for more reliable comparisons among states if implemented. Interestingly, Arizona’s method and that proposed by the NGA bear a great deal of resemblance.

Graduation/Completion Rates by Different Methodologies and How Arizona Ranks Nationally Accordingly

Organization	Arizona Rate	Nat'l Rate	Arizona’s Nat'l Rank
Arizona Department of Education	72.7% (2002 Graduation Rate)	n/a	n/a
National Center for Education Statistics	68.3% (2001 Completion Rate)	n/a	38^th out of 39
Manhattan Institute	70.0% (2002 Graduation Rate)	71%	33^rd out of 50
Urban Institute	67.3% (2001 Graduation Rate)	68%	33^rd out of 51
Education Commission of the States	59.0% (2000 Graduation Rate)	67%	41^st out of 50

In order to be consistent when stating graduation rates and national rankings, it is necessary to utilize both the graduation rate and national ranking based on the same methodology. For example, because no other state uses the exact methodology as Arizona, it is not possible to state a national ranking associated with the 74.0% graduation rate reported by ADE for the class of 2003. However, because the same methodology has been employed across all states by the Manhattan Institute, for example, it is accurate to state that with the 70.0% graduation rate for the class of 2002 calculated by the Manhattan Institute, Arizona ranks 33^rd out of the 50 states and falls just below the national average graduation rate of 71.0% for that year. Regardless of method of calculation, Arizonans must ask if any of these rankings is “good enough”. At best, Arizona is just below average, and most Arizonans probably agree that we need to do better than that. In fact, CFA is leading a coalition of business, educational and non-profit organizations that is recommending that Arizona aim to be in the top ten states nationwide in graduation rates by 2020. Click here for CFA Graduation Goal Project.

2. How many Arizona students are not graduating each year? The absolute number of students failing to graduate from high school offers another way of looking at the problem and a compelling illustration of why we cannot be satisfied with our graduation rates. The graph below shows that Arizona’s students failing to graduate from high school could climb from 16,000 in 2003 to over 21,000 by 2010. These numbers are derived on the assumption of a 74% graduation rate, changing demographics, and similar graduation requirements, and do not take into account any impact of AIMS or other changes in curriculum requirements on graduation rates. Number of High School Graduates and Non-Graduates

Note: 2000-2003 are ADE-reported enrollments and graduation rates. 2004-2012 figures are provided by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) report Knocking at the College Door (2003), in which projections of high school graduates were made for each state based on recently reported graduation rates and projected changes in demographics and state-wide public school enrollment. Numbers in bold indicate students who leave school without a high school diploma for 2003 and 2010. According to the Arizona Department of Education, the Class of 2003 consisted of 62,045 students. With a graduation rate of 74.0% in 2003, this means that over 16,000 high school seniors failed to earn a high school diploma in 2003. If 21,000 students fail to graduate in 2010 based on the assumptions already stated, this would represent a 31% increase over 2003 of the number of students who do not graduate from high school each year. The number of non-graduates could grow at an even faster rate among our Latino students simply because Latino student enrollment is projected to grow faster than the population at large on average. Even if we succeed in boosting graduation rates then, the gains may not keep up with the growing numbers of students in the system. Setting aside, then, the question of exactly where Arizona ranks nationally in terms of graduation rates, a comparison that is problematic at best, the absolute numbers of students that are now not graduating from high school, and the prospect of that number potentially growing, should be enough to persuade all of us that this challenge facing our state is of importance to us all. This issue is important not just to the parents of these students, or the students themselves, but to all of us who care about the economic future and wellbeing of Arizona.

3. Why do graduation rates vary by who is reporting them? Unfortunately, there is no nationally recognized formula for calculating public high school graduation rates. Each state, and in some states, each school district, may determine who is or is not a graduate in different ways. For example, in some states, students who are on Individual Education Programs (IEPs) who complete their IEP requirements are considered “graduates”. In other states, only students who meet the state-mandated curriculum for graduation are considered “graduates”. There is great debate in many states on how to count those students who successfully complete 12 years of public school education, but who fail to meet the state-mandated curriculum for graduation. These students are neither dropouts nor graduates, thus some states report both “graduates” and “completers” to account for all students who have been through the public education system, regardless of their qualifications upon leaving the 12^th grade. A number of organizations have created methods of calculating state and national graduation and dropout rates. In doing so they may rely on numbers reported directly to them by state education agencies such as the Arizona Department of Education or they may use other data from other sources such as the census. It is thus not surprising to find that where a state is determined to rank nationally according to these different methodologies is going to be different depending on the data on which that conclusion is based and on the methodology that is utilized. So, for example, one methodology may determine that Arizona is “average” in graduation rates compared to the national average while according to another methodology Arizona may be ranked “low.”

4. What are the most common graduation rates used and how are they calculated? In addition to the statewide graduation numbers published annually by the Arizona Department of Education (ADE), several national research organizations calculate national and state-by-state graduation rates in order to make comparisons between the states. Some frequently cited figures come from the National Center for Education Statistics, the Manhattan Institute, and the Urban Institute, each of which has their own method for calculating graduation rates. Additionally, the National Governors Association has recently proposed another method for calculating graduation rates in an effort to create a common standard among the states. The following table presents several different methods of calculating graduation rates and some key differences between them. We have attempted to report the most comparable data, but because each organization does not issue an annual report as the ADE does, some of the data refers to the graduating class of 2001 and some to the class of 2002. The relevant class year is included in the table. ADE has more recent figures available on its web site but the purpose of this chart is to illustrate how methods and outcomes differ by methodology. Methods for Calculating Graduation Rates and Relative Ranking of Arizona According to Methodology

Arizona Department of Education – ADE (2002)
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
72.7%	n/a	n/a	- Start with number of students who enroll in ninth grade for the first time - Track students over the next four years, keeping track of students who have transferred into and out of the public school system (moved to or from other states, moved to or from private schools, or died) to determine overall class membership- Divide the number of students who have earned a high school diploma at the end of four years by the overall class membership	Each public high school in AZ annually reports to ADE the number of students in a cohort class who are graduates, still enrolled, dropouts, GED holders, or status unknown	Public and charter school students who have met the state requirements for high school graduation; Special education students who have fulfilled the requirements of an IEP	Students who are enrolled in school past the fourth year, or who get a GED; Students who receive another state-issued credential, such as a certificate of completion or attendance; Special education students who have not fulfilled an IEP
National Center for Education Statistics – NCES (2001)
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
68.3%	n/a	38th out of the 39 states in report	Completion rate, NOT a Graduation rate:- Start with state-reported number of completers for a given cohort class in Common Core of Data- Determine the number of dropouts reported for this cohort class in 9^th, 10^th, 11^th and 12^th grades- Add the total number of dropouts from the cohort class to the number of completers to determine total number of students who have left school from this cohort class- Divide the number of four-year completers by the number of students who have left school (four-year completers plus dropouts)	US Dept of Ed Common Core of Data	Students who receive a high school diploma within four years; Students who receive state-issued high school credentials, such as certificates of attendance or completion, including special education students	Students who are enrolled in school past the fourth year, or who get a GED; Students who are status unknown are not included in the cohort class
Manhattan Institute (2002)
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
70%	71%	33rd out of 50 states	Greene method:- Start with estimated enrollment in 9^th grade (average of state-reported 8^th, 9^th and 10^th grade enrollment for a given cohort in Common Core of Data)- Make adjustments for changes in population (as shown by Census Bureau) throughout state and nation during the four years the cohort should be enrolled in high school- Use population change percentage to determine the number of students who would be expected to be enrolled in high school with the specified cohort class- Divide the state-reported number of students who received a high school diploma by the number of students expected to have graduated based on population changes and a 100% graduation rate	US Dept of Ed Common Core of Data;US Census Bureau	Any student that the state reports as a graduate (may vary by state whether special education students or GEDs are included);May include graduates from other cohort classes who happen to graduate with the cohort class	Any student from the cohort class who earns a high school diploma earlier or later than four years
Urban Institute (2001)
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
67.3%	68%	33rd out of 51 – report includes D.C.	Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI):- Start with enrollment numbers for 9^th, 10^th, 11^th and 12^th grade for a given school year from the Common Core of Data- Compare with enrollment numbers for 10^th, 11^th, and 12^th grades for the following year and the number of reported graduates- Create a grade-specific promotion ratio for each grade transition (9^th to 10^th grade, 10^th to 11^th grade, 11^th to 12^th grade, and 12^th grade to graduation)- Multiply the grade-specific ratios together to create an estimate of the likelihood that a ninth grade student will complete high school with a regular diploma in four years, given the conditions in that state at the time of the calculations	US Dept of Ed Common Core of Data	Any student receiving a regular high school diploma as a graduate in accordance with the provisions of NCLB; May include graduates from other cohort classes who happen to graduate with the cohort class	Students who receive GEDs or other state-issued credentials, such as certificates of attendance; Does not account for changes in school system that may occur during four years of high school, such as the implementation of exit exams or changes in the required curriculum
Education Commission for the States – ECS (2000)
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
59.0%	67%	41^st out of 50 states	Details on methodology forthcoming
National Governor’s Association – NGA
AZ Rate	Nat’l Rate	AZ Nat’l Rank	Method	Data Source	Who’s Included?	Who’s Not Included?
n/a	n/a	n/a	Method proposed by NGA and approved by all 50 state Governors. Start with number of students who enroll in ninth grade for the first time- Track students over the next four years, keeping track of students who have transferred into and out of the public school system (moved to or from other states, moved to or from private schools, or died)- Divide the number of students who have earned a high school diploma at the end of four years by the number of students enrolled in ninth grade plus/minus the students who have transferred into or out of the cohort class	State education agencies will gather data and calculate their own graduation rates based on a national method	Students who receive a high school diploma within four years; Students who earn a modified diploma, such as a special education diploma if the student fulfills the requirements of a state-recognized IEP	Students who are enrolled in school past the fourth year or who get a GED; Students who receive any other high school credential, such as a certificate of completion or any other non-diploma special education certification

5. Where can I find more details on how these rates are calculated?

The information presented here came primarily from the following reports. These sources may be able to address more in-depth questions you may have about specific methods of graduation rates calculations.

Arizona Department of Education (2004). Graduation Rate Study Code Descriptions. www.ade.state.az.us/researchpolicy/gradrate/GradRateCodesDescription.pdf

Curran, B. (2005). Graduation Counts: A Report of the National Governors Association Task Force on State High School Graduation Data. Washington, DC: National Governors Association. www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0507GRAD.PDF

Greene, J. P., and Winters, M. A. (2005). Public High School Graduation and College-Readiness Rates: 1991-2002. New York: The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/ewp_08.pdf

Kaufman, P., Alt, M. N., and Chapman, C. (2004). Dropout Rates in the United States: 2001 (NCES 2005-046). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2005/2005046.pdf

Owin, B.R. (2003). Graduation Rate Report: Four and Five Year Graduation Rates for the Cohort Class of 2002. Arizona Department of Education. www.ade.state.az.us/researchpolicy/grad/2002_Cohort-5_Yr_Graduation_Report.pdf

Ruppert, S. S. (2003). Closing the College Participation Gap: A National Summary. Education Commission of the States. www.communitycollegepolicy.org/html/Issues/access/pdf/ECSNationalReportComplete.pdf

Swanson, C. B. (2004) Who Graduates? Who Doesn't? A Statistical Portrait of Public High School Graduation, Class of 2001. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/410934_WhoGraduates.pdf

Young, B. A. (2003). Public High School Dropouts and Completers from the Common Core of Data: School Year 2000-01 (NCES 2004-310). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2004/2004310.pdf

6. What are the top and bottom ranked states by these different rates?

Urban Institute – Class of 2001
National Avg. 68% AZ Rate 67.3% AZ Ranking 33^rd out of 51

Top Ten States		Bottom Ten States
New Jersey	86.3	Washington	62.6
Idaho	79.6	Alabama	61.4
North Dakota	79.5	New York	61.4
South Dakota	79.4	New Mexico	61.2
Minnesota	78.9	Mississippi	58
Utah	78.3	Tennessee	57.5
Iowa	78.2	Georgia	55.5
Wisconsin	78.2	Nevada	54.7
Vermont	77.9	Florida	53
Nebraska	77.3	South Carolina	50.7

Manhattan Institute – Class of 2002
National Avg. 71% AZ Rate 70% AZ Ranking 33^rd out of 50

Top Ten States		Bottom Ten States
New Jersey	89	Louisiana	63
Iowa	85	Hawaii	63
Wisconsin	85	Delaware	63
North Dakota	85	Mississippi	60
Minnesota	84	Florida	59
Nebraska	83	Alaska	59
Pennsylvania	80	Alabama	58
Connecticut	79	Tennessee	57
Oklahoma	79	Georgia	56
Ohio	78	South Carolina	53

National Center for Education Statistics – Class of 2001
National Avg. n/a AZ Rate 68.3% (completion rate, not a grad rate)
AZ Ranking 38^th out of 39 reporting

Top Ten States		Bottom Ten States (of 39)		States Not Reporting
North Dakota	90.1	Idaho	76.9	California
Wisconsin	90.0	Wyoming	76.5	Colorado
Iowa	89.2	Oregon	76.4	Florida
New Jersey	88.0	Illinois	75.8	Indiana
Connecticut	86.6	Alaska	75.2	Kansas
Maine	86.5	New Mexico	74.4	Michigan
Massachusetts	86.3	Nevada	73.5	New Hampshire
South Dakota	84.6	Georgia	71.1	North Carolina
Pennsylvania	84.0	Arizona	68.3	South Carolina
Nebraska	83.9	Louisiana	65.0	Texas
				Washington

Education Commission of the States – Class of 2000
National Avg. 67% AZ Rate 59%
AZ Ranking 41^st out of 50 (Tied with 3 other states at 41^st)

Top Twelve States (tie for 10^th)		Bottom Ten States
New Jersey	86	Alabama	59
Minnesota	84	Arizona	59
Nebraska	84	New York	59
North Dakota	84	North Carolina	59
Utah	84	Louisiana	56
Iowa	83	Mississippi	56
Vermont	79	Florida	55
Montana	78	Tennessee	55
Wisconsin	78	Georgia	52
Connecticut	77	South Carolina	51
Idaho	77
Maine	77

7. What about dropout rates? As mentioned in our GRAD Initiative FAQs the methodologies used for calculating graduation and dropout rates vary across the states, and the reported graduation and dropout rates for a given year will not total 100%. The recent Kids Count report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation cited Arizona as having the highest dropout rate in the country. It has been much discussed in the press and will be briefly addressed here. For the purposes of state reporting, ADE calculates a snapshot dropout rate (also called an event rate) of the percentage of 9^th-12^th grade students who have dropped out in a single school year. This number tells us something about how many students have chosen to leave school in a given year. The Kids Count report is based on census data and represents what is called a “status dropout” rate in which any person who is between the ages of 16 and 19 who does not have a high school diploma and is not currently enrolled in school is counted as a dropout. While this number gives us information about the entire population of young adults, it does not tell us specifically whether or not these young adults have ever been enrolled in an Arizona public school and have subsequently dropped out of school. It is likely that some of this population includes students who dropped out of an Arizona public school in 7^th or 8^th grade, a recognized but not well-documented phenomenon for children of this age who are not included in ADE’s dropout count which includes only 9^th - 12^th graders. The count may also include individuals who moved to Arizona after the legal age required for attending school (age 16) and who never enrolled in an Arizona public school; these students did not attend or drop out of an Arizona public school and would therefore not be accounted for in ADE’s dropout statistics. Finally, there are certainly among the status dropouts counted by the Kids Count report students who did drop out of an Arizona public school, and these students are also included in ADE’s annual statistics. Ultimately, we need to know more about who these “status dropout” young adults are and understand why they are not pursuing an education at an age at which one would expect them to be doing so, but it should also be understood that the numbers reported in Kids Count describe a somewhat different group of individuals than those described in ADE’s dropout reports.