1. What do the terms dropout, dropout rate, cohort class, graduation rate, completion rate and status unknown mean?
The exact definitions of many of these terms may vary depending on the source of the information. For the purposes of the Center for the Future of Arizona, we rely on the following definitions as used by the Arizona Department of Education and the National Center for Education Statistics.
Dropouts – students who were enrolled in school at the end of the previous school year or at any time during the current school year but were not enrolled at the end of the school year and did not transfer, graduate or die.
Dropout rate – ratio of dropouts to total enrollment in a given year, expressed as a percentage.
Cohort class – group of students that enter the ninth grade for the first time together and who are expected to advance through high school as a group and become part of the same graduating class after four years of high school.
Graduation rate – percentage of the cohort class that received a diploma by the end of their fourth year of high school.
Five year graduation rate – percentage of the cohort class that received a diploma by the end of their fourth year of high school, in the summer following the fourth year, or by the end of their fifth year of high school.
Completion rate – percentage of the cohort class who earn a diploma, as well as students who receive either a certificate of attendance or a certificate of completion in lieu of a diploma. In the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) calculations this number does not include students who have earned a GED or students who continue on past their fourth year of high school.
Status unknown – proportion of cohort class that left school within the first four years of high school and did not return, graduate, transfer, receive a GED, or die and whose academic status and location are unknown to the schools from which they were previously enrolled.
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2. What is Arizona’s dropout rate?
As calculated and reported by the Arizona Department of Education, Arizona’s high school dropout rate for the 2003-2004 school year is 7.4%. This is an annual snapshot of the percentage of students in 9th-12th grade who were enrolled in school at any time during the 2003-2004 school year yet were not enrolled at the end of the school year and who did not transfer schools, graduate, or die.
More information on the Arizona Department of Education annual dropout report and dropout numbers for previous school years can be found at http://www.ade.state.az.us/researchpolicy/DropoutInfo/
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3. What is Arizona’s graduation rate?
As calculated and reported by the Arizona Department of Education, Arizona’s high school graduation rate for the 2002-2003 school year is 74.00%. This is a four-year cohort rate, meaning of all the students who enrolled in ninth grade in the 1999-2000 school year, 74% of them successfully graduated from high school within the next four years.
More information on the Arizona Department of Education annual graduation rate report and graduation rates for previous school years can be found at http://www.ade.state.az.us/researchpolicy/grad/
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4. Why do the dropout and graduation rates not add up to 100%?
The manner in which the dropout and graduation rates are calculated prevents them from totaling to 100%. The dropout rate reported above consists of all 9th through 12th grade students in a single school year that have dropped out. In contrast, the graduation rate is calculated by following a cohort class through high school and reporting the percentage of those who have graduated by the end of their fourth year.
Furthermore, students who have earned a GED, who are enrolled in high school for a fifth (or more) year, special education students or those who are “status unknown”, meaning they may have dropped out of school or they may have transferred to a different school, district or state may or may not be included in either the dropout rate or graduation rate calculation, depending on the standards of each school district.
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5. How do Arizona’s dropout and graduation rates compare nationally, and why is it difficult to make state-by-state comparisons?
Unfortunately, there is no national standard for calculating statewide dropout and graduation rates. For dropouts, Arizona uses a snapshot calculation (also called an event rate) of the percentage of 9th-12th grade students who have dropped out in a single school year. Some states do not report dropout rates at all; some states include 7th and 8th grade in their annual dropout rate calculations; some states count each student as a dropout more than once if they return to school then leave again, while other states count repeat dropouts as only one student dropping out regardless of the number of times they leave and re-enter school.
For graduation rates, Arizona uses a cohort calculation (also called a longitudinal rate), essentially following each group of students from their ninth grade year through their senior year. Some states do not report a graduation rate at all; some states use a cohort rate, but track students past their senior year to allow inclusion of those students who graduate from high school in five years rather than four; some states calculate a graduation rate by comparing graduates to the number of students who were enrolled in only the 12th grade at the beginning of the school year.
These differences in calculating dropout and graduation rates make state-by-state comparisons challenging, if not misleading. In an effort to generate data that allows for reasonably accurate state-by-state comparisons, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) uses data reported by each individual state to calculate a completion rate as described above. Those states that do not report separate figures, such as dropout rates or “other completers” to NCES are not included in the state-by-state comparisons from NCES. Additionally, states which use a different academic calendar for reporting completion and dropout rates than requested by NCES are included in the state-by-state comparisons despite some differences in when certain students are counted as completers for a given school year.
Thus, despite some states lacking information and some states having slightly different academic calendar years, the data from the NCES calculations are the most reliable and comparable state-by-state data available at this time.
In the report Dropout Rates in the United States: 2001 (http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2005/2005046.pdf), the NCES reports comparable dropout rates for 45 of the 50 states. With a dropout rate of 10.9% for the 2000-2001 school year, Arizona ranked 45th out of 45 states. The same report includes the 9th-12th grade completion rates for 39 states. With a completion rate of 68.3% for the 2000-2001 school year, Arizona ranked 38th out of 39 states.
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6. Why is there disagreement about the number of dropouts in our state?
In addition to the method for calculating dropouts varying by state, within the state of Arizona there may be variation between districts in which students are counted as dropouts. Currently, students who leave school but successfully complete a GED are counted as dropouts. Special education students who complete 12 years of school but fail to earn a degree may be counted as dropouts. Students who dropout of school, return in the following school year and dropout again may be counted as dropouts each time they leave the educational system. Each district within the state may have slight variations as to which students are considered dropouts. Furthermore, Arizona has a large number of students who are “status unknown”, meaning the school districts do not know if the students have actually dropped out of school, moved to another school or district, moved to a private, charter, or alternative school, or even moved out of state. In all, because the term “dropout” means so many different things to so many different people, there is likely to be continued disagreement over the actual number of dropouts in the state of Arizona.
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7. What is the cost to Arizona of our children dropping out of school?
Because the global economy and national, state and local job markets are relying more and more on technology in the workplace, the demand for skilled, educated employees is rapidly expanding. This growing knowledge-based economic environment demands high school completion as a minimum for entry into the workforce as well as for higher education and specialized training. With a substantial portion of the population failing to earn a high school diploma, the impact on Arizona and its economy is quite large.
Although it is clear that there are high costs associated with students failing to achieve a basic education, estimation of these costs is difficult as there are many factors that may be affected by uneducated or under-educated populations. The earning potential of the individual is obviously affected. However, because people of lower socioeconomic status are also statistically more likely to collect welfare, use illegal substances, and spend time in jail, there are costs to the state beyond just the loss in income to the individual. Furthermore, because individuals with higher earnings pay a higher rate of taxes, the state of Arizona loses potential income for these state services as well. Although it may be impossible to know the exact cost of each dropout, attempts have been made by various organizations to answer these questions. The following are examples of such attempts:
According to a 2002 report by the Arizona Minority Education Policy Analysis Center (AMEPAC) of the Arizona Commission on Postsecondary Education, for the dropouts of the cohort class of 2000, total costs to Arizona in lost earning capacity and incarceration expenses were estimated at $214.4 million per year and $14.25 billion over the lifetime of these high school dropouts. For every $1 spent to help students graduate from high school, the state of Arizona saves $66 in state services and lost revenue.
Similarly, in a 2003 column, Rodel Foundation President and CEO Dr. Carol Peck suggests that our annual dropout number of approximately 28,000 students each year results in a loss of at least $207 million in annual wages and over $62 million lost in annual tax revenue for the state of Arizona. The social costs associated with these numbers, including the higher rates of incarceration for high school dropouts, total $55.7 million annually, with projections of long-term costs for just one cohort class of dropouts at over $18 billion.
Finally, with fewer high school graduates, Arizona may fail to attract the businesses and industries needed to keep the growing population gainfully employed. Increasing numbers of dropouts affect not only those individuals who fail to graduate, but also the opportunities and economic strength of the larger population. In addition to the economic burden caused by high dropout rates, there is also the social burden of increased costs to government through welfare programs, healthcare systems, and the criminal and justice systems.
More information on the AMEPAC report on the costs and crisis of Arizona’s dropouts can be found at http://www.acpe.asu.edu/AMEPAC_DroppingOut.pdf. More information on the column by Dr. Peck of the Rodel Foundation can be found at http://www.rodelfoundationaz.org/about_us/biz_journal/20031121.shtml.
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8. Where can I go to learn more about Arizona’s dropout issues?
Please visit our Suggested Readings, News, Presentations, and Links to Organizations pages to find useful information on articles, books, research reports, policy briefs and links to other useful web sites concerned with Arizona’s dropout and graduation rate issues.
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