Delivering on Voters’ Priority for Higher Education and Training Could Add $20 Billion to Arizona’s Economy

Arizonans have been clear: education and opportunity are among the state’s highest priorities. Across geography and demographics, residents believe a highly educated and well-skilled population is not only good for their families but essential to Arizona’s success. A new analysis from Unlocking Potential: Turn Arizona’s Priorities into Economic Gains, released by Center for the Future of Arizona (CFA) quantifies the return of increasing post-secondary attainment levels and shows how doing so directly strengthens Arizona’s economic infrastructure.

Developed by Rounds Consulting Group, Unlocking Potential reports that increasing education and training beyond high school could generate $20 billion in additional annual economic output, $7.9 billion in higher wages, and $744 million in new tax revenues for Arizona — demonstrating how acting on voter priorities can yield measurable economic returns.

The new report builds on CFA’s Arizona Voters’ Agenda research, which shows that voters see post-secondary attainment as key to growing a highly skilled workforce, reducing barriers to opportunity, and keeping Arizona competitive for generations to come. Across political and generational lines, large majorities of Arizonans want to ensure more residents earn a degree or credential after high school and believe state investment in public universities and community colleges should increase.

CFA’s findings affirm years of research across the state showing education is one of the most powerful drivers of prosperity. Despite consistent public support, Arizona continues to face a significant gap between workforce needs and educational achievement. Fewer than one in three Arizona high school graduates earn a degree or credential within six years, contributing to a persistent gap between available jobs and the number of skilled workers in the state.

“Arizonans have long understood that education drives opportunity. This analysis gives us a clear picture of what could happen if we truly delivered on that shared vision,” said Dr. Sybil Francis, Chair, President & CEO of CFA. “When more people can gain the knowledge and skills to access better jobs and higher wages, families thrive, businesses grow, and our economy becomes more resilient. Raising educational attainment is one of the most powerful economic strategies we have for Arizona’s future. It’s about ensuring that our workforce and economy can grow together for the long term.”

Key Post-Secondary Attainment Findings at a Glance

The analysis reveals the broad and lasting benefits:

• $20 billion in additional annual economic output: Increasing the number of Arizonans with degrees and credentials would expand the economy across industries.
• $7.9 billion in additional wages: Greater skills attainment translates to stronger earnings and greater household stability statewide.
• $744 million in new annual tax revenues: Gains in wages and productivity would yield increased public revenue for state and local priorities.
• High-skill workforce opportunity: The data reveal a major opportunity to from closing the gap between current workforce preparation and projected demand.

“The findings underscore how education and training beyond high school function as essential infrastructure, every bit as vital to Arizona’s future as roads and utilities,” said Jim Rounds, President of Rounds Consulting Group. “The good news is that we have a major opportunity in front of us. Investing in education and skills development pays measurable returns for families, businesses, and the economy. The more we align our workforce preparation with long-term needs, the stronger and more resilient Arizona’s economy will be.”

Arizona’s education pipeline continues to lag national averages. The state’s high school graduation rate stands at 78%, and only 48% of graduates enroll in a two- or four-year college. Just 30% complete a degree or credential within six years — compared to 62% nationally — leaving tens of thousands of high-wage jobs unfilled by local talent each year. Each year, Arizona has roughly 81,700 open positions requiring education beyond high school, but only about 10,400 graduates annually with those credentials.

“Arizona has long attracted talent from elsewhere to fulfill its talent needs. With rising costs and new pressures, can we continue to rely on imported talent to the same degree? These findings give leaders a chance to look beyond short-term pressures, ask such questions, and make decisions that strengthen our workforce and economy for generations to come,” Dr. Francis added. “We hope to prompt deeper conversations about how to grow our talent pipeline from within because it delivers on what the public wants and benefits families, employers, and communities alike.”

The Unlocking Potential analysis examines extensive existing research on post-secondary attainment in Arizona and uses state-specific data combined with nationally recognized economic modeling. It estimates the scale of benefits Arizona could realize without prescribing specific policies, providing a foundation for leaders to evaluate long-term decisions and investments.

The report also includes in-depth analyses of voter-backed priorities in childcare, housing, and transportation — finding how these interconnected systems form infrastructure for a strong economy and thriving future. CFA is releasing a series of issue-specific briefs and will engage leaders statewide to explore how these findings can inform long-term planning and sustained collaboration across sectors.

All findings, methodology, and resources are available at arizonafuture.org/UnlockPotential.