Arizona Republic: Stop asking what Arizona’s future costs. Ask what it returns

We often hear that the government should operate more like a business. What people usually mean is: stop looking only at what things cost and start paying attention to what they return.

Businesses don’t make long-term decisions based on price tags alone. They ask what an investment will produce over time; whether it will strengthen their workforce, expand opportunity, and position them for the future.

At Center for the Future of Arizona, we wanted to apply that same lens to public priorities in our latest research. Not just what will this cost? but what would Arizona gain if we actually acted on the priorities Arizonans share?

We commissioned Rounds Consulting Group to conduct an independent economic analysis, published in a new report called Unlocking Potential. It looks at five priorities broadly supported by Arizona voters through a simple lens: return on investment. It puts concrete numbers behind long-term choices, showing what Arizona could gain when we act on priorities voters already support.

The results are powerful. And they clearly demonstrate the benefits of thinking beyond the next budget year or election cycle.

Start with childcare. Arizona’s lack of affordable, reliable care isn’t just an inconvenience for families; it’s a real barrier to economic participation. CFA research has found that parents across the income spectrum report that the cost and limited availability of childcare are preventing them from returning to work or school. When parents are sidelined, the effects ripple outward: fewer people in the workforce, fewer paychecks, less tax revenue, and less disposable income circulating through local businesses and communities.

Expanding childcare access and affordability could generate more than $12 billion in annual economic output, support over 115,000 jobs, and free up about $9,300 more per year in each household’s income. That’s not just a family issue. It’s workforce infrastructure and economic fuel. To put that scale in perspective, estimates often put the economic lift of hosting a Super Bowl at around $1 billion.

Housing affordability matters just as much. When households are stretched by rent or mortgage payments, the tradeoffs are immediate and personal: savings disappear, local spending shrinks, and people take jobs farther from home or turn down opportunities altogether. Those choices add up for Arizona. When workers can’t afford to live near where jobs are growing, productivity suffers, and the state becomes less competitive in attracting and keeping the people who power our economy.

Reducing household cost burdens to 30% of income would free up roughly $8,900 per household each year and unlock more than $13 billion in statewide economic gains, supporting over 126,000 jobs. That’s money families can save, invest, and spend locally; and stability that helps employers retain talent.

These are just a couple of examples. Each priority delivers a return on its own and even greater gains when we advance them together. It may cost something to act. But when the return is greater, it’s a smart investment. These aren’t personal handouts. They’re public goods that strengthen our economy and help families thrive, a virtuous circle.

The report findings are not a finish line. They’re a beginning. Shared priorities are common ground. Acting on them builds stability, strengthens our workforce, and supports the kind of sustainable growth Arizonans want for the long term.

As we head into a new year and a new legislative session—and consider the choices we have ahead—we have a real opportunity to be responsive to what Arizonans care about most. The pull of short-term pressures is always there. But Unlocking Potential gives us something we rarely have in the heat of public debate: clear data that helps us step back, look ahead, and see what Arizona can gain when we invest where voters already agree.

CFA will continue expanding this work: listening to Arizonans, measuring returns, and sharing actionable data that helps leaders move beyond short-term thinking. Acting on these priorities is an investment in ourselves and in Arizona’s long-term success. And now we know the return on acting is real. It is measurable. And it is within reach.

Sybil Francis, Ph.D., is Chair, President & CEO of Center for the Future of Arizona, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that brings Arizonans together to create a stronger and brighter future for our state.