Phoenix Business Journal: Future-proofing Arizona’s economy: Let's invest where voters already agree
Phoenix’s growth, and the growth of Arizona as a whole, has been remarkable. What happens in the Phoenix region increasingly shapes our state’s economic trajectory. In recent years, that momentum has attracted new businesses, new residents and new opportunity.
Now we’re at a moment that calls for the same discipline that built that success in the first place: a clear long view.
Employers across Arizona are working hard to hire and retain talent. Employers are competing in a tighter labor market, facing rising costs, and seeking ways to sustain long-term growth. Workers are feeling the pressure of rising housing and childcare costs. And too many young Arizonans still lack consistent access to the post-secondary pathways needed for tomorrow’s jobs, raising real questions about how we grow and keep the workforce our economy will depend on.
These pressures aren’t a reason to pull back. They’re a signal to invest smarter. The good news is that the path forward is unusually clear, because Arizonans are already aligned on what matters most.
For nearly two decades, Center for the Future of Arizona (CFA) has listened to people across the state. One thing has always stood out to me about Arizonans as a whole: we’re pragmatic. We don’t just want growth. We want growth that lasts. We want leaders to plan further ahead.
Our latest Arizona Voters’ Agenda research shows voters are concerned about the state’s ability to sustain growth and want more long-term planning. It also found cross-partisan agreement on core priorities like affordable and accessible childcare, quality education and training pathways, attainable housing and reliable transportation infrastructure.
Drawing inspiration from the way businesses make decisions, we decided to ask another question. What would it mean for Arizona to actually realize the priorities we share? In business, cost is only part of the equation. What matters is return. So we set out to measure what Arizona, its employers, workers and communities, could gain.
That’s why we commissioned Rounds Consulting Group to conduct "Unlocking Potential," a new economic analysis for CFA. It applies an ROI lens to the priorities voters already agree on, putting concrete numbers behind what’s possible when delivering on the outcomes broadly supported by the public.
The results are powerful, and should matter to every business leader focused on the bottom line, workforce stability and long-term competitiveness. Here are a few highlights:
- Expanding childcare access and affordability could generate $12 billion in annual economic output, support 115,000 jobs, and free up $9,300 per household each year. For employers, that means fewer absences, lower turnover, and stronger household spending – all key drivers of a healthy business climate.
- The same pattern holds for education and workforce pathways. Expanding dual enrollment (earning college credit in high school) helps students complete degrees faster and enter Arizona’s talent pipeline sooner. The analysis shows a return of $47.8 million in economic output for every additional 2,000 students who participate in such programs. That’s not an abstract education win. That’s a scalable, faster, stronger pipeline of skilled workers and future leaders.
- Closing the statewide post-secondary education and training gap could add $20 billion to the state’s economy, nearly $8 billion in wages, and nearly $744 million in tax revenue annually – while filling more of our workforce needs with homegrown talent. In a national talent market that is only getting more competitive, growing more of our own talent is not a nice-to-have. It’s a strategic advantage.
- Housing matters Reducing cost burdens to 30% of income would free up $8,900 per household annually and unlock $13 billion in statewide gains, supporting more than 126,000 workers.
Arizona’s success has been fueled by ingenuity and optimism; sustaining it will take foresight. "Unlocking Potential" shows that investing in the priorities Arizonans already agree on will deliver measurable returns. These public priorities aren’t separate from economic growth. They are the systems that make it possible.
This analysis is just the beginning. The same discipline that drives smart business decisions can also guide Arizona’s public choices. With clear data and broad public agreement, we have a real opportunity to invest where it counts and build a stronger, more resilient future for Phoenix and for Arizona.
Sybil Francis, Ph.D., is chair, president and CEO of Center for the Future of Arizona.